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Aam Aadmi Party – Cicero Delhi Opinion Poll

Aam Aadmi Party commissioned Cicero Associates(www.ciceroassociates.in), a New Delhi based consultancy firm, specializing in public opinion polling and survey research, to carry out the second round of a Delhi wide survey of a representative sample of Delhi’s voters.  The first wave of the poll was conducted in February 2013, while the data presented here is from the second wave.

The second wave of the survey followed the same design as the first. A total of 3310 respondents were interviewed in the first wave, while 3372 respondents were interviewed in the second wave.  The respondents were scientifically selected from the electoral rolls of 175 polling booths spread across 35 Assembly Constituencies.  All Assembly Constituencies, Polling Booths and respondents were sampled using the Systematic Random Sampling Technique. Selective substitution was permitted under strict protocols.  All interviews were conducted face-to-face using a standard-structured questionnaire and a dummy ballot was used for voting questions.

The data set presented here is the complete raw data file without any manipulation.  However, the open-ended question on ‘caste’ has been re-coded and thus is not presented in the data file.  Moreover, respondent number has been deleted in order to maintain anonymity of the respondents.  The vote shares used for analytical purposes (given in table below) are based on adjustments done for those who reportedly had not decided on whom to vote for. A comprehensive index was developed using questions on who should form the next government in Delhi.  The index was then used as a base to adjust for undecided voters.  The adjustments were carried out by applying weights to the entire data set. 

Table: Vote Estimates

 

%

Congress

26

BJP

31

AAP

27

BSP

7

Others

9

Note: Undecided voters were adjusted in proportion of raw vote estimates.

 

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The raw data file has been made public to maintain transparency.  Any questions on the methodology and analysis of the survey can be posted on info@ciceroassociates.in

Dhananjai Joshi

Director, Cicero Associates & Consultants

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